by Doug McCarty
I am a little scared. Why? Well, it so happens that my two dearest and closest relatives are flying almost simultaneously on long trips. My oldest daughter is flying to Portugal in early April, and my younger daughter flies to Orlando a few days later for her first Disney visit. And, why am I concerned, you may be thinking?
It has been in the news, in our faces, night and day, the fate of the Malaysian Airlines Flight 370. I am excited for my daughters, but I am, much like any other parent, worried over the trustworthiness of the system of flight into which I must place them. Now, I have made many long flights myself, have flown for many hours on large jets towards foreign destinations, yet I have never been at ease with these journeys. Nor have others—I only had to look around me to see my fellow passengers downing alcoholic beverage after alcoholic beverage to realize that my lack of comfort was shared by many. Not terribly reassuring. I recall looking out at the deep, dark Atlantic from my window seat on one flight, a thousand miles yet to go, and, I thought, “Don’t go down.”
And, what do I think when I conceive my children miles above open water flying? The same thoughts that I always had for myself during my flights to other countries, other experiences, cultures. There is that feeling, that innermost twisting, the unexplained feeling of dread, of loss. Certainly, those who had ties to the passengers and crew of Malaysian Flight 370 know it well, accompanied by that tragic knowledge of the irretrievable in the aftermath of what little we now know of the plane’s demise in or over the Indian Ocean.
In our contemporary culture, we demand so much information, promptly delivered. We require that moment of instant gratification, that sense of closure, fulfillment, a quick peace. My father (who is approaching 80) observed while I was writing this blog that, 30 years ago, when he was about my age, a plane could go down in the ocean, and we would not expect to find it. That is hardly true today, 3 weeks plus after Flight 370 vanished. The 24-hour news channels feed us non-stories about what may have occurred, much of it pure speculation. The rather silly theory of terrorism that made its frantic way through the news has largely been abandoned. Granted, terrorist links are still being investigated, chiefly by the U.S., which is focusing on two Iranian citizens who boarded the plane using stolen Austrian and Italian passports. Interpol, however, does not believe that either of the two Iranians were terrorists, a view shared by other countries investigating this possibility. At present, it seems most likely that the two planned to migrate to Europe. That early knee-jerk reaction is interesting, as it heaped fuel upon the speculative flame. Too often, we look for answers without considering the evidence we have before us, or even waiting for the evidence to arrive. As I write, I am watching a CNN discussion of the black box, pingers, sophisticated equipment on the way from the U.S. and China, and I get the sense of urgency as they talk about the 30-day battery life of the black box.
I guess one of the problems is that the whole episode makes so little sense that it is almost impossible to contrive a reasonable explanation for whatever happened to Flight 370. There is that talk going on now of possible mechanical failure causing the pilots to speed up, maybe in an effort to get back to the airport, but that explains nothing about why the plane flew over land and back into the ocean. And, no communication is another issue. Why would a pilot in peril not communicate?
Thinking on how safe it is to fly versus to drive, I looked up a few statistics. It turns out that the odds of dying by car per mile are 1 in 100,000, by plane, 1.6 in 100,000,000,000. In other words, one is 625,000 more times likely to die in a car driven per mile than in a plane flown per mile. Now, that seems fairly reassuring news, but when taken into account how many car trips are taken each year (300 billion) versus flights, the numbers become less reassuring. The odds become, then, of dying by car one in 10,000,000, by plane, one in 720,000,000. So, that means one is only 72 times more likely to die by car than by airplane. One would wish a more comfortable margin. Of course, this data is from just one website, and there are many disparities between statistics. I did find one that says, “When we fly, we have a one one-hundred-thousandth of one percent chance of dying.” That is comforting to me, personally, although I know it is not to the families and friends of those lost on Flight 370.
At this point, debris and objects retrieved from the Indian Ocean have proved to be unrelated to the flight. There are dozens of ships and planes in the area from a multitude of countries. One wonders if these amassed forces will be sufficient to unravel the mystery surrounding this plane’s disappearance. The intensity and scale of the search is increasing hourly, and it has been said that, if this mystery has a solution, then the searchers will find it. I hope for the sake of those left behind that this is true.