Let me begin by stating that I consider myself an environmentalist. I recycle almost religiously. I compost obsessively. I keep the thermostat low in winter and high in summer. I try to limit how much I drive, but as the chauffeur for my three school-age sons, this is quite difficult. I support environmental causes and organizations when I can, having been a member of the Sierra Club and the Audubon Society.
I find the arguments of the Climate Change deniers uninformed at best and disingenuous at worst. Likewise, the idea of certain religious conservatives that it is hubris to believe that humans can have such a large effect on God’s creation strikes me as theologically silly and even dishonest. And while I understand and even sympathize with the concerns of those folks whose businesses and livelihoods are tied to our current fossil-fuel addiction, I find their arguments that economic interests should override environmental concerns to be lacking in both ethics and basic forethought.
That being said, I have lately begun to ponder not just the ultimate intentions and goals of the environmental movement, but the very future of our planet.
Earth and atmospheric scientists tell us that the earth’s temperature is increasing, most probably as a result of human activity. And that even if we severely limited that activity (which we are almost certainly not going to do anytime soon), the consequences are going to be dire: rising temperatures will lead to more severe storms, melting polar ice caps, melting permafrost (which in turn will lead to the release of even more carbon dioxide, increasing the warming), rising ocean levels, lowering of the oceans’ ph levels (resulting in the extinction of the coral reefs), devastating floods in some places along with crippling droughts in others.
Basically, our not-too-distant future may be an earth that cannot support human life.
Now, in my more misanthropic moments, I have allowed myself to indulge in the idea that this is exactly what the earth needs. That this in fact should be the goal of any true environmental concern: the extinction of humanity. For only then does the earth as a planet capable of supporting other life stand a chance. (After all, the “environment” will survive without life, though it won’t be an especially nice place to visit, much less inhabit, especially for a human.)
And a good case can be made that humans have been destroying the environment in asymmetrical and irrevocable ways since at least the Neolithic Age when we moved from hunter and gatherer culture to the domestication of plants and animals along with sustained agriculture. Humans have been damaging the environment ever since. (Unlike the beaver, as only one example of a “keystone species,” whose effect on the environment in dam building has an overwhelming positive and beneficial impact on countless other species as well as the environment itself.)
So unless we’re seriously considering a conservation movement that takes us back to the Paleolithic Era instead of simply reducing our current use and misuse of the earth, then we’re really just putting off the inevitable.
But all that being said, whatever the state of our not-too-distant future, the inevitability of the “distant future” is undeniable—for humans, as well as beavers and all plants and animals, and ultimately the earth itself. For the earth, like all of its living inhabitants, has a finite future.
Around 7.5 billion years or so is a reasonable estimate. And then it will most probably be absorbed in the sun, which will have swollen into a red giant.
At best, however, this future only includes the possibility of earth supporting life for another billion years or so. For by then, the increase in the sun’s brightening will have evaporated all of the oceans.
Of course, long before that, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (ironically enough) will have diminished well below the quantity needed to support plant life, destroying the food chain and causing the extinction of all animal species as well.
And while that’s not good news, the worse news is that humans will have been removed from the equation long before the last holdouts of carbon-based life-forms eventually capitulate.
(Ok, so some microbes may be able to withstand the dry inhospitable conditions of desert earth, but seriously, who cares about the survival of microbes?)
Now if we’re optimistic about all of this (irony intended), the best-case scenario is for an earth that is able to support life as we know it for at most another half billion more years. (Though this may be a stretch.) And while that seems like a really long time, we should consider that the earth has already been inhabited for just over 3 and a half billion years.
So having only a half billion years left is sort of like trying to enjoy the last afternoon of a four-day vacation.
Enjoy the rest of your day.